Conab Forecasts Brazil's First Forecast Season 2018/19

06/02/2018

News from New York, the national bureau of Brazilian government (Conab), is expected after the latest survey of 2018/19 yields of 54.44-58.51 million bags. The fluctuation range increased by 21-30% compared to the previous crop of 44.9 million bags.

The year-on-year decline of 2016 was a seasonally-adjusted increase of 13.9%, or an increase of 3.07-14 million bags.

The output of Arabica coffee is expected to be 41.74-44.05 million bags, up 21.9-30.1% over the previous season, when the harvested volume of the last crop of 2017/18 reached 34.25 million bags. The production of conilon (Robusta) Conab is expected to be 12.7-13.96 million bags, increasing 18.4-30.2% in comparison with the previous crop.

Major Brazilian Minas Gerais coffee production area is expected to yield 29.09-30.63 million bags, mainly of Arabica and Espirito Santo production, where the expected production of the crop is expected to reach 11.58-13.33 million bags.

In terms of area, Conab expects the total new planted area to increase by 2.8% to 1,916,100 ha. Older coffee growing regions are projected to decrease by 16.9% to 286,500 ha. Thus the total area of Brazil today is 2,202,600 hectares, down 0.2% compared to 2017.

In general, crop yields are dependent on weather factors and annual cycles are lost. Productivity will still be expected from 28.41-30.54 bags 60kg / ha, up from the average 17.7-26.5% over the previous crop, up 23.07% / ha.